Changing demands, markets and agricultural technologies are expected to significantly transform Indian agriculture in near future. The pace of these changes is expected to increase very rapidly in the coming years and the whole agricultural scenario may become quite different in next ten to twenty years. To address multifarious challenges of sustainable development in context of future climatic change, agricultural planning has to ensure sufficient food production, employment generation and rural income while conserving natural resources. Global climatic changes and increasing climatic variability could have some adverse implications in achieving these goals.

To understand the interaction between temperature, precipitation and increase in CO₂ concentration, crop models such as DSSAT, WTGROWS and INFOCROP have been widely used for evaluating the impact of various biotic and a-biotic stresses on growth and yield of crops and cropping system. Under climate change scenarios, using these models, a 2°C increase in mean air temperature indicate that it could decrease rice yield by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. For a 425-ppm CO₂ ambient concentration and 2°C rise in temperature, a shift of iso-yield lines of wheat is projected for India The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C. It is projected that a rise in mean temperature of 2°C and a 7% increase in mean precipitation, agriculture in the coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka is likely to be affected negatively. Small losses are also indicated for the major food grain-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh.

Simulated response of irrigated rice and wheat in north India to changes in temperature and CO₂. Lines refer to the equal change in grain yield (% change, labeled values) at different values of CO₂ and increase in temperature. Large, shaded box refers to the total uncertainty in impact assessment due to uncertainties in IPCC scenario of 2070. Small, hatched box refers to the total uncertainty due to uncertainties in the scenario of 2010.

In addition to this, Controlled environment facilities such as open top chambers, Phytotron, and green houses are now increasingly being used to understand the impact of temperature, humidity and CO₂ on crop growth and productivity. Greater efforts are now also being made to establish Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) facilities where CO₂ is artificially increased in field conditions to quantify its possible impacts. One such facility has recently been setup at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, to study the effect of increased CO₂ on crop photosynthesis and yield.

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GEF Project Implemented by UNDP

Implementing & Executing Agency Ministry of Environment and Forests Government of India

Facilitating Agency Winrock International India

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