Impact of Climate Change on Forestry and Natural Ecosystems

Approximately 270 million ton (Mt) of fuelwood, 280 Mt of fodder and over 12 million m3 of timber and several non-timber forest products are removed from forests annually. About 200 million people depend on forests for their livelihood directly or indirectly. The value of goods and services provided by the forest sector is estimated to be Rs. 25,984 crores. Climate is one of the most important determinants of vegetation patterns, and thus there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change on the Indian forestry sector to develop adaptation measures at the local, regional and national level.

Process-based model BIOME-3 is used to project vegetation changes in the country by the year 2050, using both GCM and RCM projections for climatic change. Quantitative estimates of projected changes in forest biome types can be obtained on the basis of the number of RCM grids (out of a total of about 1500) that change from one biome type into another. About 70% of the grids (and concomitantly, existing forests) at 1% increase in CO₂ concentration, are likely to experience a change (64% using GCM projections). The biome type most seriously impacted is the Dry Savanna with about 62% of it, mainly lying in the Northern/Central parts of India, likely to be converted into Xeric Woodland (Dry Thorn Forest), while another 24%, mainly in the Northwestern parts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrubland. In general, increased CO₂ is expected to lead to an increase in the net primary productivity. This has an effect of converting grassland into woodlands and woodlands into forests.

Thus, in the region with a relatively large temperature increase, dry and moist savannas are likely to be replaced by xeric vegetation, while in the areas with a lower temperature increase and enhanced rainfall, the moist savannas seem to be transformed into Seasonal Tropical Forests. However, the Northern part of the country has largely been transformed into agriculture and thus the Savannas occupy only a small geographical area. The other biome type to be affected is the moist savanna located in the Northeast and some of the parts of the Southern India. This is likely to be converted into Tropical Seasonal Forest (about 56%), mostly in the Northeast and Xeric woodland (Dry Thorn Forest) (about 32%) mostly in South India, depending on the change in the quantum of rainfall. The Tropical seasonal forest, especially in the Northeast, is likely to change into Tropical Rain Forest due to a large increase in rainfall expected to take place in that region. The changes expected in the colder regions are also along similar lines, with Tundras likely to change to boreal evergreens, and boreal evergreens into temperate conifers

Vegetation map for year 2050, GHG run of HadRM2

The biodiversity other natural ecosystems such as the mountain ecosystems, grasslands, wetlands, and marine ecosystems of India is already threatened in the existing climate, mostly due to economic activities. Climate change will be an additional stress. Linked with this is the lively hood of people dependent on the products of these natural systems and the integrity of the environment of the country. Considering the need to protect such systems, measures need to be taken to avert degradation of biodiversity in addition to the ongoing efforts of the government. Reducing the present stresses on natural ecosystems will provide them space and time to grow. This, coupled with suitable coping strategies, would reduce the cumulative impacts of future climate change and other stresses on Indian natural ecosystems.

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GEF Project Implemented by UNDP

Implementing & Executing Agency Ministry of Environment and Forests Government of India

Facilitating Agency Winrock International India

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