As per the provisions of Article 4 and 12.1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India has taken up the preparation of inventories of basket of gases. The gases include greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), Methane (CH₄), Nitrous Oxide (N₂O) and fluorinated compounds, namely, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF₆). The sources from which these gases are being estimated are energy, industrial processes, agriculture, Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and waste for the base year 1994. This is in addition to estimating historical trends of GHG growth. In order to be transparent and comparable, the IPCC 1996 guidelines for estimating national GHG inventories are being followed for all the sectors. Tier I and Tier II methodologies are being applied depending on the availability of specific data.

This component of the National Communication involved 19 institutes. The sub-sectors under each of the major activities have a number of institutes involved in the collection of primary and secondary activity data and preparation of GHG emission inventory. Their work is in turn coordinated, verified and collated by a lead institute.

All the participants have been trained through workshops on Inventory estimation and Good Practices for reporting as per the IPCC guidelines. This included the development of a Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) plan. This approach is being complemented by developing indigenous emission factors for some of the key sources of emissions in the country. These are further expected to reduce the uncertainties in GHG estimates. Each participating institute had submitted its status and activity data reports. Regular consultative meetings were conducted to reconcile the differences in reporting and other matters.

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Uncertainty Reduction in GHG Estimations

GHG emission estimates made earlier in the country have generally used IPCC default emission factors, which are not region or condition specific, and therefore have introduced uncertainties in the emission estimates. Some uncertainties also exist in the activity data. Through this project an attempt has been made to generate India specific emission factors by undertaking in-situ measurements for some key source categories. The efforts are to define the range in uncertainties in the estimates through statistical methods. Time and budgetary resources available under the project limit the coverage under this activity. Sectors that have been taken into consideration are: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, LULUCF and waste.

The activities covered under the energy sector include measurement of CO₂ emission coefficient from coal based power, steel and cement plants representing different technologies. Some super thermal power plants, integrated steel plants and medium sized cement plants are being targeted for CO₂ emission coefficient measurements. The Central Fuel Research Institute, Dhanbad, and Jadavpur University, Kolkata, are conducting these measurements. The Indian Institute of Petroleum, Dehradun, is measuring the emission factors of CO₂, NOx and NMVOC released from the road transport sector. The Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi, is using a combination of statistical methods and secondary data sources to reduce uncertainty in road transport sector activity data. The Central Mining Research Institute, Dhanbad, is measuring the methane emission coefficients from coal mining activity including CH₄ from surface mining, which is being measured for the first time in India.

Industrial processes covered for emission coefficient measurements include emission fluxes from cement manufacturing process, lime production, and nitric acid production. The emission factor in case of cement manufacturing process is a product of CO₂ generated from CaO and MgO content of the clinker and the correction factor for CKD losses from the plant. This emission factor multiplied by the clinker production gives the emission of GHG from each cement plant. In the nitric acid production process, ammonia is oxidized with air to result in main products NO, NO₂ and a byproduct N₂O in small quantities. After nitric oxides are absorbed, nitrous oxide is left out and is vented either directly or after using abatement technologies. National Chemical Laboratory, Pune, is conducting these measurements.

In the agriculture sector, measurements are being conducted for CH₄ emission coefficient estimation due to enteric fermentation in indigenous and crossbred dairy cows for different age groups. The National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, is conducting the experiments and National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, is providing support for data measurement in terms of standardization of measurement and instrument calibration. The Indian Agriculture Research Institute, New Delhi, is involved in the measurement of N₂O emissions from soils supporting rice-wheat systems in the country. They are also carrying out measurements to ascertain the emission coefficient of N₂O due to application of nitrogenous fertilizers. The National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, is involved in the measurement of N₂O and CH₄ emission coefficients from managed manure systems, CH4 from rice cultivation under different water regimes and organic amendments, and CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from burning of crop residue.

In the LULUCF sector, uncertainties associated with activity data and emission factors are being looked into. This is being done through determination of annual growth rate of plantations and different forest types, determination of annual growth of above ground biomass, assessment of forest conversion rates, field measurement of DBH (Diameter at Breast Height) of certain plant species, sampling of on-site and off-site fraction of biomass burnt, fraction of biomass left to decay, and measurement of soil carbon in various soil types, etc. The Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, has undertaken these activities. A component of measurement of uptake of CO₂ by specific species of plants is being conducted by the Central Fuel Research Institute, Dhanbad.

In the waste sector, measurements are being carried out to estimate the emission coefficient of CH₄ released from municipal solid waste dumping sites in Delhi.

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It is generally agreed that the South Asian region, dominated by the monsoons, is one of the most difficult regions to model, with considerable differences among models and high sensitivity to model parameters. Based on the model projections, it is estimated that the mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.5 ⁰C in southern India while in the north it may increase by 2.5-3.5 ⁰C by 2040. Assessment has become more difficult due to the complex role played by climate forcing due to aerosols, its extent and regional spread. Given such complexities within India itself, the NATCOM project attempts to identify regions of higher vulnerability to climate change in India, conduct a few specific studies and develop possible adaptation measures in a few sectors. However, time and budgetary resources available under the project limit the coverage under this activity too.

Vulnerability assessment of the sectors being carried out include agriculture, water resources, forestry, coastal zones, natural ecosystems, human health, industry and infrastructure. This exercise entails consistent construction of likely climate and socioeconomic scenarios for India along with an assessment of extreme events using existing models and expertise.

Temperature and precipitation data have been collected for the last hundred years for India. These and other data will be used for generating future climate scenarios using GCM and regional models. Eleven activities have been identified for work under this component. Thirty-four research teams across the country have undertaken activities under the vulnerability assessment and adaptation component. Whilst the national sectoral studies are being coordinated and synthesized by lead institutes, individual case studies are being undertaken by different secondary institutes.

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The objective of establishing a Data Centre (DC) was to develop a comprehensive database of activity data, emission coefficients, and other aspects of the National Communication project for the country. This facilitated uniformity in methodologies being used. Towards this end, an archive was created from the database generated in the course of the project. Interactive software programmes were designed for data management and analysis. In addition, the DC hosted a website containing relevant information for convenient access.

The basic data was collected in accordance with the standard IPCC formats by institutions engaged with different NATCOM components. The archive of inventory databases was developed and categorized under sector, fuels and gases for different years. The relevant information is being disseminated through the National Communication website (www.natcomindia.org).

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A targeted research proposal is being developed for submission to GEF to enable India to strengthen scientific capacity, respond to climate change challenges and carry forward the work initiated under the NATCOM project. This will form the basis for further National Communications and implementation of commitments under the Climate Change Convention. The following activity areas are proposed to be covered under the proposal :

Capacity building is an essential part of every project. The NATCOM project contemplates capacity building through workshop organization and participation of research teams in various NATCOM activities. The NATCOM Project Management Cell has organized 16 events (till December 2002) all over India for training and raising awareness on issues pertaining to different components of the National Communication. These were in the nature of Thematic workshops such as the one organized on LULUCF, 'Reduction of uncertainties in inventory estimation' and on 'Targeted research'. Training workshops on 'Preparation of inventory of greenhouse gases', 'Good practices in inventory estimates', and awareness workshops on 'Global warming and our water resources'. The workshops offered opportunities for experts of various participating institutions to familiarize themselves with the procedure and guidelines for inventory development as well as good practices for reporting these. In all, almost 900 individuals belonging to R&D institutes, government bodies, universities, and autonomous and non-governmental organizations across the country participated in these events. Extensive professional material and reports were distributed to the participants.

The second and more intensive component of capacity building initiative is the involvement of over 280 researchers in various NATCOM components. This is particularly important in a developing country perspective where lack of incentives and resources divert trained manpower to better job avenues, creating a vacuum in national capacity building efforts. There have to be sustained capacity building efforts for a reasonable time so that a critical mass of trained individuals is created covering various disciplines and affiliations (policy makers, industry, researchers, media, etc.). This critical mass would then attract others and thus would be able to sustain outflows. The process then becomes self-sustaining and institutionalized. Therefore, timely and sustained international funding is critical for this effort.

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